Applied Scenario Planning
About this applied programme
Applied Scenario Planning develops the ability to make strategic decisions when a single forecast is not enough. Participants investigate drivers of change, construct useful alternative futures and challenge the assumptions behind an actual strategy, market or investment decision.
The programme goes beyond best-, base- and worst-case forecasts or a standard scenario matrix. It connects strategic foresight with competitive challenge, option evaluation, wind tunneling and actionable decision triggers. Participants leave with practical methods and work they can continue. Every programme is led by Dr Frank Heyd.
Who will benefit most from this programme?
Corporate strategy and planning teams, consultants and practice leaders, corporate academies, defence institutions and executive groups working with material uncertainty.
The exercises and cases are adapted to the audience. An intensive builds fluency; a modular programme applies the complete approach to a live organizational question.
Why choose Applied Scenario Planning?
Scenario work is often limited to alternative forecasts or imaginative futures with little effect on strategy. The harder task is selecting an appropriate method, testing actual options and connecting conclusions to decisions and review processes.
This programme develops that discipline through applied practice, combining research, methods from intelligence analysis and experience advising leadership teams on strategic choices.
Participants will learn how to
Distinguish strategic uncertainty from financial best-, base- and worst-case forecasts.
Frame live decisions, map drivers of change and identify critical uncertainties.
Construct contrasting futures using methods appropriate to the strategic question.
Stress-test strategic options and investments, including competitive disruption.
Translate scenarios into robust actions, signposts and review triggers.
Programme content
Module 1
Frame the strategic question
- Define the decision, horizon, sponsor and intended executive output.
- Surface assumptions behind the current strategy or investment.
- Distinguish trends, known risks and genuine uncertainty.
- Select methods according to the decision rather than a fixed 2×2 process
Module 2
Explore change and plausible futures
- Investigate market, technology, regulatory and competitive drivers.
- Map cross-impacts, weak signals and critical uncertainties.
- Use futures wheels, morphological analysis or scenarios as appropriate.
- Challenge plausible futures for internal logic and strategic relevance.
Module 3
Stress-test choices and opportunities
- Test strategy and investments across contrasting futures.
- Explore nightmare competitors and plausible market discontinuities.
- Identify robust moves, contingent options and avoidable exposures.
- Examine implications for growth, capital allocation and capability.
Module 4
Translate foresight into decisions
- Agree commitments, options, owners and near-term actions.
- Define signposts and thresholds that call for review or change.
- Integrate outputs into strategy and planning routines.
- Transfer tools so teams can apply the methods independently.
One method base, tailored application
The two-day intensive offers a concentrated introduction. A modular applied programme gives teams time for research, iteration and executive review. Both are adapted to the participants and live questions.
Let’s discuss which uncertainty your team needs to address and what capability it should develop.
