Applied Scenario Programme
About this programme
The Applied Scenario Programme guides a small internal team through a complete scenario exercise built around a live strategic question. Structured input, working sessions and senior sparring take the team from framing and research through scenario construction, strategy stress testing and executive review. The organization develops both the answer and the capability to repeat the process.
Who should attend?
A small cross-functional team from strategy, corporate development, planning, risk or the relevant business, supported by an executive sponsor.
Why choose an Applied Scenario Programme?
Serious foresight work needs time for research, challenge, iteration and leadership engagement. The programme combines internal ownership with external guidance. It avoids outsourcing the work to a large consulting team or expecting employees to master the method without sufficient structure and challenge.
The programme will produce
A precise decision frame and must-be-true assumptions.
An evidence-based map of driving forces and critical uncertainties.
A small set of plausible, decision-relevant scenarios.
A wind-tunnel assessment of the strategy or commitment.
Agreed actions, options, signposts and an executive-review process.
Programme structure
Phase 1
Frame and mobilize
- Confirm the question, sponsor and intended decision.
- Establish the core team, responsibilities and working cadence.
- Review the current strategy, evidence and assumptions.
- Define research priorities and stakeholder inputs.
Phase 2
Explore and construct
- Investigate the forces shaping the environment.
- Prioritize the uncertainties with the greatest strategic effect.
- Construct a small set of coherent scenarios.
- Challenge them for plausibility, relevance and distinctiveness.
Phase 3
Stress-test and develop choices
- Wind-tunnel the strategy or proposed commitment.
- Identify robust moves, vulnerabilities and contingent options.
- Examine implications for capital, capability and sequencing.
- Prepare the areas requiring executive judgement.
Phase 4
Decide and embed
- Facilitate executive review of the scenarios and implications.
- Agree commitments, options, indicators and thresholds.
- Assign ownership and establish a review cadence.
- Transfer the process, tools and materials to the internal team.
Meet your adviser
Dr Frank Heyd is founder of Heyd Strategy and former Head of Strategy and Organization at Porsche Consulting. He advises leaders across automotive, aerospace, defence and industrial businesses, designed and delivers a six-module scenario programme for the Bundeswehr, and serves as a guest lecturer at London Business School.
A programme built around your question
The scope, cadence and support are adapted to the decision and internal team. Where the immediate need is to test one prepared decision, an Executive Scenario Lab may be sufficient. Where deeper external diagnosis is required, the work can be structured as a Decision Stress Test advisory mandate.
