Executive Scenario Lab
About this workshop
One decision. More than one plausible future. The Executive Scenario Lab is a concentrated working session for leaders facing a consequential commitment before the evidence is complete. Prepared around the live decision, it exposes the assumptions carrying the greatest risk and determines what to commit to, keep open and monitor.
Who should attend?
CEOs, boards, investment committees and leadership teams facing a major strategic, investment, capacity, market-entry or portfolio decision.
Why choose an Executive Scenario Lab?
Most major decisions are discussed around one central forecast. The lab introduces contrasting futures so the team can see where the proposed course holds, becomes vulnerable or requires adjustment. It ends with an explicit position, not a collection of scenarios.
The session will help you to
Define the decision and the conditions required for success.
Expose the external assumptions carrying the greatest risk.
Test the decision against a small set of plausible futures.
Distinguish firm commitments from options that should remain open.
Define indicators and thresholds for changing course.
Typical Content
Stage 1
Frame the decision
- Clarify the commitment, timing and degree of reversibility.
- Identify what management currently assumes will happen.
- Agree the decision criteria and intended output.
- Prepare the evidence and future frames with the sponsor.
Stage 2
Expose the assumptions
- Identify the external conditions the decision requires.
- Separate uncertainties from known risks and sensitivities.
- Prioritize assumptions by their effect on the outcome.
- Make leadership disagreements explicit.
Stage 3
Wind-tunnel the decision
- Examine the decision across contrasting futures.
- Identify where the strategy holds, becomes sensitive or fails.
- Explore no-regret moves, options and staged commitments.
- Determine which exposures can be reduced before committing.
Stage 4
Convert foresight into action
- Agree what to commit to and what to keep open.
- Define signals and thresholds for action.
- Assign ownership for monitoring and review.
- Capture the conclusion, rationale and next moves.
Meet your adviser
Dr Frank Heyd is founder of Heyd Strategy and former Head of Strategy and Organization at Porsche Consulting. He advises leaders across automotive, aerospace, defence and industrial businesses, designed and delivers a six-module scenario programme for the Bundeswehr, and serves as a guest lecturer at London Business School.
Need a broader engagement?
Some decisions require more diagnosis, research or stakeholder work than can be compressed into a workshop. A Decision Stress Test extends the same logic into a focused advisory mandate, from framing and evidence through scenarios, wind-tunnelling and executive commitment.
