1. Situation

An established energy company aimed to evaluate potential pathways into the Sustainable Fuel Industry. The project aimed to develop a comprehensive market entry strategy for the emerging sustainable fuel sector. It required an understanding of this evolving market, its various segments and potential routes for entry, and viable partnering opportunities.

2. Approach

The “Where to play?” phase involved a thorough analysis of the upstream and downstream markets. We examined technology maturity, supply and demand drivers and the market price structure. Our review extended to industry segments, applications, and products, providing a holistic view of the market landscape.

Next, the “How to win?” phase focused on identifying success factors for players along the value chain, along with commercialization options. We explored various business model options, evaluated market entry concepts, and screened potential project partners. A key goal was to identify the strategic sweet spot for the client — where existing capabilities could be leveraged, customer demand was evident, and potential advantage over existing and emerging competitors was reasonably achievable.

In the final “When to play?” phase, we evaluated the optimal timing for market entry, considering a spectrum of market entry modes: Organic growth options, targeted M&A, partnering, joint ventures, or technology development. We also examined time-to-revenue and entry sequencing options broadening the client’s understanding of potential pathways for entry. Meanwhile, we considered the project landscape, identifying the fit with potential partners and managing external market uncertainties such as regulatory changes, technology evolution, oil price fluctuations, and globally disruptive events.

3. Results

The analysis led to a robust understanding of the market’s attractiveness. We also identified synergies with the client’s existing core business, aiding in a seamless transition to integrated operations.

Moreover, we offered concrete entry strategies, evaluated in terms of their potential contribution, and fit with the client’s objectives. We proposed clear avenues and partnerships options across the industry’s value chain, opening up diverse opportunities for growth and expansion.