1. Situation

A renowned automotive company was already faced with a myriad of uncertainties. From the semiconductor shortage impacting production to unpredictable rates of EV vehicle adoption and an evolving regulatory landscape, the company was constantly adapting its strategies to ensure resilience. Just as they were strategizing responses to these challenges, the outbreak of the Ukraine war added another layer of complexity, introducing unprecedented supply chain disruptions, geopolitical uncertainty, and market volatility.

In such a high-stakes environment, the company recognized the need to move beyond traditional forecasting and reactive strategies. To effectively navigate their business landscape, they required a comprehensive, dynamic approach that allowed to make decisions despite the high level of uncertainty.

2. Approach

Realizing the gravity of the situation, the company involved us in their effort to build scenarios. We helped the client in identifying the driving forces of the Ukraine war and defining its critical uncertainties, which played a pivotal role in scenario planning.

Working closely with the client, we shaped distinct, plausible future scenarios based on these uncertainties. These painted narratives provided a framework, helping the company understand the dynamics and ramifications of each potential future. To ensure these scenarios remained actionable, we pinpointed specific signposts for each that would signal the unfolding of a particular scenario in the months ahead.

Given the vast array of uncertainties, we recognized the need for both scenario-specific responses and broader strategic maneuvers that held relevance across all scenarios. As such, while scenario-specific strategies were crafted to address the unique challenges and opportunities of each scenario, we also defined ‘no-regret’ moves. These moves, applicable across scenarios, equipping them to pivot efficiently regardless of which future materialized.

3. Results

The structured and yet pragmatic scenario planning approach, coupled with the specific actionable strategies, allowed the automotive company’s senior management team a more confident decision-making and agility in the face of the unforeseen challenges presented by the Ukraine war and other industry uncertainties. Their proactive stance, backed by our insights, allowed them to swiftly realign their strategies when required, securing continued growth in a challenging market.